MUST READ: GERMAN INTELLIGENCE DESCRIBES A "NEW QUALITY" IN JIHADI THREATS

German Intelligence Describes a “New Quality” in Jihadi Threats
By Thomas Renard

Germany fears that it may have moved toward the top of al-Qaeda’s list of targets. An increasing number of messages on jihadi websites call for an attack on German soil. Simultaneously, there seems to be a “new quality” in the Islamic propaganda, in the words of Heinz Fromm, president of the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, or BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. Messages and videos, including specific instructions for the building of bombs, are now directly posted to websites in German and in Arabic with German subtitles. According to Fromm, this strengthening of al-Qaeda’s internet offensive has been observed for the last year (Die Welt, February 8). There is a consensus among members of the government and the intelligence community that the domestic security situation has deteriorated. “There are indications that, apart from the Sauerland attackers' plans (see Terrorism Monitor, November 8, 2007), the odds are high that terrorists are working on several other plans,” declared Bernhard Falk, vice-president of the Federal Criminal Police (Die Welt, February 8). Last July, Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble warned: “We could be struck at any time” (Spiegel Online, July 9, 2007).

The main reason behind Germany’s new importance in al-Qaeda’s agenda is the presence of German troops in Afghanistan. A message published in the German-language internet forum of the Global Islamic Media Front calls for Islamist militants in Germany to act against their government (Die Welt, February 8). As part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Germany currently has 3,200 soldiers deployed in Afghanistan, mainly in the northern provinces and the capital city of Kabul. On February 6, Germany committed to sending an extra 200 soldiers to Afghanistan, remaining under the maximum threshold of 3,500 soldiers allowed by a parliamentary mandate (Reuters, February 6). Although Germany has been a part of the NATO coalition in Afghanistan since the beginning, the specific threat against Europe and Germany has been growing in the past few months—most notably since Osama bin Laden’s message “To the Nations of Europe,” which called for attacks against European countries (al-Jazeera, November 29, 2007).

At last week’s Munich Conference on Security Policy, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates connected efforts in Afghanistan with the terror threat in Europe: “What would happen if the false success [the terrorists] proclaim became real success—if they triumphed in Iraq or Afghanistan, or managed to topple the government of Pakistan? Or a major Middle Eastern government?” he asked. “With safe havens in the Middle East, and new tactics honed on the battlefield and transmitted via the Internet, violence and terrorism worldwide could surge” (Reuters, February 10).

German officials are well aware that a great part of their country’s security depends on the situation in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Authorities are concerned about an increasing number of German nationals travelling to Pakistan to receive jihadi training in al-Qaeda’s camps. In March 2007, for instance, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) seized 29-year-old Nihad C. from Pforzheim and 30-year-old Michael N. from Oberhausen, both German-born. German investigators are convinced that Nihad was looking for jihadi training (Spiegel Online, March 14, 2007). The number of people involved in such “jihadi trips” remains relatively low, although it is expected to grow (Deutsche Welle, July 23, 2007); therefore, it is hard to talk about a real jihadi “network” in Germany. At the moment, it is instead more accurate to talk about individual initiatives.

Concerns about terrorism—and more specifically home-grown terrorism—are even greater since the release of a new study commissioned by the German Interior Ministry last December [1]. Based on interviews with 1,750 German Muslims, the authors conclude that radical Islamism is a more important factor in Germany than previously thought. The study finds that 40 percent of the Muslim population has a “fundamentalist orientation,” defined as strongly religious worldviews and moral values. More worrisome is the authors’ discovery that 14 percent have “anti-democratic tendencies” and 6 percent have “violent tendencies,” which includes supporting violence in the name of Islam. There are approximately 3.5 million Muslims in Germany, mainly Sunnis from Turkey.

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1) German Intelligence Describes a “New Quality” in Jihadi Threats