MAPPING THE GLOBAL FUTURE
Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project
Based on Consultations With Nongovernmental ExpertsAround the World
Relative Certainties
Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized.
World economy substantially larger.
Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies.
Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights.
Aging populations in established powers.
Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand.
Growing power of nonstate actors.
Political Islam remains a potent force.
Improved WMD capabilities of some states.
Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa.
Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely.
Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore.
US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.
Key Uncertainties
Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new “rules of the game.”
Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises.
Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.
Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.
Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower.
Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions.
Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors.
Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology.
More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons.
Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes.
Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources.
Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.
Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge.
Possible Futures
In this era of great flux, we see several ways in which major global changes could take shape in the next 15 years, from seriously challenging the nation-state system to establishing a more robust and inclusive globalization. In the body of this paper we develop these concepts in four fictional scenarios which were extrapolated from the key trends we discuss in this report. These scenarios are not meant as actual forecasts, but they describe possible worlds upon whose threshold we may be entering, depending on how trends interweave and play out:
Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by
China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization
process—giving it a more non-Western face and transforming the political playing
field as well.
Pax Americana takes a look at how US predominance may survive the
radical changes to the global political landscape and serve to fashion a new and
inclusive global order.
A New Caliphate provides an example of how a global movement fueled by
radical religious identity politics could constitute a challenge to Western
norms and values as the foundation of the global system.
Cycle of Fear provides an example of how concerns about proliferation
might increase to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are
taken to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian
world.
Of course, these scenarios illustrate just a few of the possible futures that may develop over the next 15 years, but the wide range of possibilities we can imagine suggests that this period will be characterized by increased flux, particularly in contrast to the relative stasis of the Cold War era. The scenarios are not mutually exclusive: we may see two or three of these scenarios unfold in some combination or a wide range of other scenarios.
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Pertinent Links:
1) Mapping the Global Future (html)
2) Mapping the Global Future (pdf)
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