MUST READ: GAZA TODAY, LEBANON TOMORROW?

Gaza Today, Lebanon Tomorrow?
by Prof. Barry Rubin

The world is shocked by Hamas’s violent takeover of the Gaza Strip and the damage done to any hope for peace or regional stability is generally recognized. But a second, even more serious, extremist takeover is in the works for which Western inaction would bear far more responsibility.

This time the victim would be Lebanon, and the perpetrator is Hizballah backed by Syria and Iran.

Today, Lebanon is ruled by a Christian-Sunni Muslim-Druze coalition determined to maintain a moderate and independent Lebanon. This partnership arose after Syria assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in February 2005, coming out of a mass movement which successfully demanded the Syrian withdrawal after two decades in which Lebanon was looted as a satellite state by its next-door neighbor.

Syria is determined to end this period of freedom and in doing so it is aided by its client Hizballah and many smaller groups including Fatah al-Islam along with pro-Syrian politicians. Fifteen major terrorist attacks, mostly assassination attempts, and many smaller ones have taken place in the last two years by Syrian agents. Notably, two of these have killed coalition members of parliament, the first Christian, the most recent a Sunni Muslim.

These attacks are not just blind efforts at revenge or mayhem. Syria is literally murdering the Lebanese government out of existence. A few more successes and the coalition will lose its majority. Also, however, the term of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, extended by Syrian demand, ends in November, making Damascus eager to get control of parliament before then to ensure its own choice will triumph.

While the violence falls well short of all-out fighting, Lebanon is engaged in a type of civil war. Hizballah walked out of the government and Syrian clients have paralyzed parliament in a so-far failed attempt to keep Lebanon from endorsing an international tribunal to investigate Hariri’s death. Everyone knows that the evidence points to the Syrian government at the highest levels for responsibility. Blocking this tribunal is priority one on the Syrian regime’s list.

As a result, coalition supporters are showing exemplary courage. Any politician or journalist who stands against Syria, Iran, and Hizballah faces the daily threat of assassination. In contrast, of course, the extremists endure no such risk since the coalition does not use terrorism against them.

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Pertinent Links:

1) Gaza Today, Lebanon Tomorrow?