MUST READ: IS ZAWAHIRI STRIVING FOR ISLAMIST UNITY IN PREPARATION FOR NEW ATTACK?

Is Zawahiri Striving for Islamist Unity in Preparation for New Attack?
By Michael Scheuer

When Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faces an increased chance of a domestic terrorist attack in the months ahead, he brought into sharp relief the fact that al-Qaeda has been working since 2001 to prepare Islamist organizations to take advantage of its next U.S. attack. Given al-Qaeda's own statements, Chertoff's sense of timing is roughly in the ballpark. Senior al-Qaeda lieutenant Sayf al-Adel has written that after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, al-Qaeda and the Taliban estimated that the Taliban would return to power in Afghanistan in about seven years, and that its return would be accomplished as part of and "in harmony with a well-examined plan that will defeat the Americans and their supporters" [1]. This coming October will mark the sixth of those seven years and that fact might well bestir Chertoff's "gut." Another hint that al-Qaeda's pre-U.S.-attack phase may be winding down is found in the intense emphasis the group's deputy commander, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has put on promoting unity among jihadi groups—Sunni and Shiites—since mid-2005. Disunity is particularly dangerous at this time, al-Zawahiri warned on July 4, because at "the stage preceding victory…there is most [often] seen an increase in conspiracies, plots and inciting of discord, in an attempt by the enemy, who has begun to see his defeat approach, to push back and delay the defeat as much as he can" [2]. Al-Zawahiri first firmly established this theme in a July 2005 letter to the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, then al-Qaeda's commander in Iraq. Warning al-Zarqawi "that things may develop faster than we imagine" in regard to the defeat and exit of U.S.-led forces in Iraq, al-Zawahiri explained that the mujahideen must be united and ready to fill any political void. Al-Zawahiri said that "the mistake of the Taliban" in not expanding participation in their government must be recalled and avoided by all Islamist groups. When the mujahideen take over in Iraq or elsewhere, al-Zawahiri wrote, insurgent leaders must direct political as well as military action "by [working for] alliance, cooperation and gathering of all leaders of opinion in the Iraqi arena." Al-Zawahiri pointedly noted that this meant Shiite-Sunni cooperation and not just intra-Sunni unity [3].

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Pertinent Links:

1) Is Zawahiri Striving for Islamist Unity in Preparation for New Attack?