MUST READ: THE MILITIA POLITICS OF BASRA

The Militia Politics of Basra
By Babak Rahimi

Basra, the second largest and the richest city in Iraq, is at the brink of a major economic and political meltdown. Unless Baghdad succeeds in reaching a compromise over the country's governmental apparatus (especially over the issue of federalism), the southern city may become the greatest threat to the future of post-Baathist Iraq. Such a threat lies mainly in a struggle for power between Shiite militias and tribal forces who compete for control over oil resources, territorial domination and public capital (hospitals and schools), which are all leading to an erosion of security in a city that is the source of Iraq's economic life. Although much of this turmoil is a reflection of the unstable nature of the transitional process, the current situation in Basra may represent a future scenario for Iraq that is made up of political factionalism and devoid of a functional government.

At the center of Basra's meltdown lies the ongoing conflict between different Shiite factions, mainly vying for control over Basra's energy industry and oil smuggling. Domination over local governance through confrontation, and at times violence, has become the routine method of conducting politics in a city that appears to be breaking apart into territories governed by different militias. Such political conflict, however, also includes competing visions of post-Baathist Iraq, as each Shiite militia advocates a particular ideological agenda (regionalist, nationalist and sectarian), while seeking popular support from various segments of the Shiite community in Basra and other southern cities.

...


Conclusion

For the time being, Baghdad remains Basra's worst enemy. The lack of a stable and relatively centralized government, at least in this transitional stage, is at the heart of the problem. Without a stable government, Basra is destined to experience the sort of violence that Beirut suffered two decades ago. A major civil-militia war in Basra seems imminent, and the consolidation of a centralized Iraqi government (including administrative and non-sectarian federated features) may possibly be the country's best solution. Basra's meltdown could well foretell the future of Baghdad as a failed state. Even worse, it could mean the unraveling of a dysfunctional city that may threaten the stability of the Gulf region and beyond.



Pertinent Links:

1) The Militia Politics of Basra (pdf file)