MUST READ: SECOND STRIKE

Second strike
By LARRY DERFNER

If the US or Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities, can Iran strike back at Israel with weapons of mass destruction? This is obviously a vital question to answer before deciding whether to use the "military option." Unfortunately, there is no one conclusive answer.

Yiftah Shapir, an expert on missile warfare at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Strategic Studies (formerly the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies), a leading strategic think tank, says Iran might well be able to retaliate with chemical weapons - meaning poison gas or liquid loaded onto missiles.

However, he continues, chemically-armed missiles aren't much more destructive than conventionally-armed ones, so the damage would be comparable to the surprisingly little harm caused by Iraqi Scuds in the 1991 Gulf War. As for the worst-case scenario - an Iranian retaliation with biological weapons, such as bubonic plague or anthrax, or nerve gas - it's highly unlikely that Iran has or will have the ability to successfully fire missiles with such warheads, Shapir says.

Ephraim Kam, an expert on Iran at the same institute, doesn't think Iran can retaliate against Israel with either chemical or biological weapons - for now. However, he thinks it could have the ability to do so in another three or four years.

For yet a third opinion, Dany Shoham, an expert on chemical and biological weapons at Bar-Ilan University's BESA Center, another leading strategic think tank, says Iran "in all likelihood" now has the capability to launch missiles armed with either chemical or biological warheads. To neutralize that threat, the US or Israel would have to first take out Iran's biological warheads or missile launchers before hitting its nuclear facilities. Failing that, Israel's Arrow or Patriot anti-missile batteries would have to knock out Iran's missiles en route.

But if Iran decided to strike back at Israel with its worst weapons - missiles armed with plague, anthrax, nerve gas or other catastrophic substances - and Israel failed to wipe them out on the ground or in the air, the effect of even one of those missiles landing, says Shoham, would be "bad." Asked what he means by "bad," he declines to elaborate, saying, "I don't want to terrify the readers."

THE LACK OF consensus on Iran's strategic profile goes beyond the question of what sort of WMD it has or doesn't have. Among experts, there are several points of contention on the sorts of issues that need to be understood before Israel or the US reaches a decision on their most worrisome political dilemma - what to do about Iran and its nuclear weapons program.

A lot has been written and said about the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran and about the possibility of bombing its nuclear facilities out of existence. Much less, however, has been written and said about the dangers of such a preemptive strike. However, this is starting to change.

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